Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.068734 12.374991 13.864169 15.708348 17.960800 20.663493 24.217446
2024-10-20 9.103658 10.607595 12.441635 14.897660 18.191808 22.606083 29.260406
2024-10-27 7.941249 9.488676 11.456364 14.228451 18.191798 23.946303 33.605450
2024-11-03 7.937177 9.781911 12.254014 15.974840 21.780643 31.255193 50.131599
2024-11-10 7.621800 9.601366 12.356438 16.713773 23.997074 37.112483 67.793896
2024-11-17 6.958646 8.864979 11.570685 15.964119 23.590851 38.127663 75.737224
2024-11-24 6.569773 8.476744 11.244705 15.879132 24.296124 41.513440 92.488780
2024-12-01 6.194496 8.073906 10.851393 15.619763 24.614673 44.186197 110.050403
2024-12-08 5.913611 7.786265 10.604400 15.568318 25.312132 47.992433 136.923237
2024-12-15 5.714416 7.604134 10.502825 15.751120 26.514325 53.590537 182.799848
2024-12-22 5.423444 7.262183 10.114858 15.366152 26.429749 55.680597 216.225343
2024-12-29 5.226283 7.052272 9.925266 15.325006 27.100057 60.351168 284.728257
2025-01-05 4.908547 6.649545 9.408581 14.650113 26.288837 60.349333 320.617229
2025-01-12 4.606252 6.257196 8.886765 13.920386 25.242647 59.248350 345.551447
2025-01-19 4.350571 5.926470 8.449513 13.317032 24.413131 58.663660 380.233141
2025-01-26 4.473636 6.204536 9.069755 14.888509 29.415457 84.143377 1710.342315
2025-02-02 4.438991 6.222666 9.235180 15.550403 32.273508 105.008087 18621.544566
2025-02-09 4.218675 5.922065 8.806561 14.878892 31.087382 103.039863 38883.275234
2025-02-16 4.095034 5.777509 8.653882 14.802649 31.704498 112.801219 NaN
2025-02-23 3.958971 5.605886 8.440988 14.569820 31.788479 119.538238 NaN
2025-03-02 3.855822 5.485357 8.315609 14.523613 32.473804 131.879632 NaN
2025-03-09 3.785127 5.416681 8.282690 14.687764 33.920248 153.529103 NaN
2025-03-16 3.657271 5.244578 8.044000 14.341944 33.512121 158.098408 NaN